The crypto market plunged sharply over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) fell heavily today to its lowest point since April 2025 and entered the “Max Pain” zone—an area considered most painful for market participants yet offering the biggest “discount” opportunities.

According to Coinmarketcap data on Friday (Nov 21, 2025) at 06:15 WIB, global crypto market capitalization dropped 2.2% to US$ 3.01 trillion in 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, tumbled 4.04% over the same period. Bitcoin is currently priced at US$ 87,473 per coin, or around Rp 1.46 billion (exchange rate Rp 16,738).

Other major cryptocurrencies also saw deep declines. Ethereum (ETH) sank 4.0% to US$ 2,864, Binance Coin (BNB) fell 2.45% to US$ 875, Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped 2.07% to US$ 0.15, XRP dropped 3.83% to US$ 2.02, and Solana (SOL) slid 1.23% to US$ 134.

CNBC International reported that Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in more than six months. The downturn came as investors reduced exposure to risk assets while monitoring the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

Bitcoin briefly plunged to US$ 86,325.81—its lowest since April 21—before stabilizing around US$ 87,000.

The pressure intensified after the U.S. released stronger-than-expected labor data. The American economy added 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding the Dow Jones estimate of 50,000.

This data raised fresh doubts about the Fed’s likelihood of cutting interest rates in December. The CME FedWatch tool now places the probability at about 40%.

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s decline also weighed on the stock market, even though Nvidia had just posted strong earnings. Many aggressive investors who hold large positions in AI-related stocks also have significant exposure to Bitcoin, causing both assets to move in tandem.

Technically, Bitcoin has faced persistent selling pressure since early October, triggered by cascading liquidations of highly leveraged crypto positions that fueled continued declines.

The “Max Pain” Zone

CoinTelegraph reported Bitcoin’s selling pressure intensifying further. The asset plunged toward US$ 86,000, nearing what analysts call the “max pain zone”—an area deeply painful for the market yet rich in discount potential.

André Dragosch, Head of Research for Bitwise Europe, explained that Bitcoin’s max pain zone lies between two key levels: US$ 84,000, the cost basis of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), and US$ 73,000, the cost basis of MicroStrategy.

Dragosch noted that Bitcoin’s cycle bottom will likely form somewhere within that range. He described the zone as a “fire-sale” level representing a complete market reset.

IBIT’s cost basis reflects the average acquisition price of Bitcoin held by the ETF. As BTC approaches this threshold, market sentiment typically worsens, with ETF holders questioning whether further downside is worth enduring or whether it is time to exit for liquidity.

This dynamic became evident after IBIT recorded its largest daily outflow of US$ 523 million on Tuesday. Over the past month, total outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reached US$ 3.3 billion, or 3.5% of total AUM.

MicroStrategy faces even greater vulnerability. The company’s net asset value (NAV) has dropped below 1, signaling its market valuation is now lower than the Bitcoin it holds—a classic warning sign of tightening liquidity and rising risk aversion. If BTC retests US$ 73,000, selling pressure is expected to increase, especially if macro conditions deteriorate.

On the macro front, uncertainty is rising ahead of the December Fed meeting (FOMC). CryptoQuant data shows that the temporary U.S. government shutdown delayed the release of key labor data, reducing the Fed’s visibility on economic conditions.

Market expectations for a December rate cut fell to 41.8% on Thursday. The latest FOMC minutes also revealed a divided committee, torn between inflation stuck at 3% and the risk of easing policy prematurely.

If the Fed decides against cutting rates, liquidity conditions may remain tight—similar to the environment that triggered Bitcoin’s sharp drop in early November.

Despite the fragile sentiment, one indicator offers optimism: stablecoin reserves on exchanges reached a record US$ 72 billion, reflecting an accumulation pattern that previously preceded Bitcoin’s major 2025 rally.

Without a rate cut, analysts expect Bitcoin to trade between US$ 60,000 and US$ 80,000 through the end of the year. Liquidity is expected to wait for macro clarity before returning to risk assets such as crypto.