Grayscale Research forecasts that Bitcoin could break its all-time high in 2026, dismissing fears that the market is entering a long-term downturn.

In a report released on Monday (December 2, 2025), Grayscale stated that Bitcoin may no longer be following the traditional four-year cycle, a widely accepted belief that BTC typically peaks and then undergoes a sharp correction every four years in line with the halving schedule.

“Although market conditions remain uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis is no longer applicable, and Bitcoin has the potential to set a new record next year,” wrote Grayscale’s analyst team.

Since early October, Bitcoin has experienced significant pressure, dropping as much as 32% in November. On Monday, BTC touched US$84,000 before rebounding to around US$86,900 by early Tuesday morning US time.

Grayscale emphasized that long-term investors have historically continued to generate positive returns despite enduring challenging corrective phases.

A decline of 25% or more is considered normal during bullish market environments and does not necessarily signal the start of a prolonged bearish trend.

The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Seen as No Longer Relevant

Grayscale further highlighted several factors that make Bitcoin’s current movement different from past cycles.

First, the market has not shown the typical parabolic surge that often precedes major reversals. Today’s market structure is also more heavily driven by institutional flows through Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) and digital asset reserves, rather than retail trading activity on spot exchanges.

From a macroeconomic perspective, global conditions remain supportive. Grayscale sees potential rate cuts and bipartisan momentum for crypto regulation in the United States as additional positive catalysts.

BitMine CEO Tom Lee shared similar optimism, pointing out a disconnect between current price action and underlying market fundamentals.

“Crypto prices keep falling, while fundamentals—including wallet growth, on-chain activity, transaction fees, and tokenization development—continue to improve. The risk-reward ratio for Bitcoin and Ethereum looks very compelling,” Lee wrote on X on Monday (December 1, 2025).

In an interview with CNBC, Lee added that he remains bullish and expects Bitcoin to potentially hit new all-time highs as early as January next year.

As of writing, Bitcoin is trading around US$87,000, up roughly 1% in the past 24 hours after briefly dropping to US$84,000 the previous day, according to CoinMarketCap.