Demographic Expert Predicts Japan’s Population Extinction in 695 Years

A demographic trends expert from the Tohoku University Research Center for Economic and Senior Society, Hiroshi Yoshida, has warned that Japan’s population could face extinction if the ongoing demographic crisis persists.

According to his calculations, Japan is projected to have only one child under the age of 14 by January 5, 2720, approximately 695 years from now. This prediction, reported by The Independent, is based on data from the Japan Statistics Bureau.

Yoshida formulated this projection by tracking the number of children annually and observing the real-time rate of population decline.

Declining Marriages Identified as a Key Factor

Since April 2012, Yoshida has been monitoring Japan’s population decline, which currently stands at 2.3 percent.

In 2023, Japan recorded its lowest birth rate at 1.20 children per woman, largely attributed to a decrease in marriages and an increasing number of people choosing to remain single.

The situation worsened in 2024, when birth rates hit their lowest level since 1969. Between January and June 2024, Japan reported only 350,074 births, marking a 5.7 percent decline from the previous year.

Population survey data also revealed that in 2023, the number of births had already fallen by 3.6 percent compared to 2022.

Government Measures: Housing Subsidies and Dating Apps

In response to the demographic crisis, the Japanese government has introduced several initiatives, including expanding childcare facilities, offering housing subsidies, and launching dating apps to encourage marriage.

According to a government-backed dating app, Tokyo Metropolitan authorities are actively working to create momentum for marriage, helping individuals who are "considering marriage in the future" take their first step.

Additionally, the government provides information on work-life balance, housing assistance, parenting support, men’s involvement in household responsibilities, and career counseling services.

Yoshida emphasized that his predictions are not meant to cause alarm, but rather to raise public and governmental awareness about Japan’s demographic crisis. He hopes that policymakers will take more strategic and proactive measures to promote marriage and boost the birth rate.

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