The government’s fund placement policy introduced by Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has yet to deliver meaningful support to the economy. Banking credit growth and the expansion of base money remain sluggish, raising expectations that Indonesia’s economic outlook for 2025 may fall short. Despite channeling Rp275 trillion into the system with confidence that it would stimulate economic activity, the expected impact has not materialized as of November.

Bank Indonesia reported that adjusted base money (M0) grew 13.3% year-on-year in November 2025, down from 14.4% the previous month, bringing the total to Rp2,136.2 trillion. According to BI Communication Executive Director Ramdan Denny Prakoso, this slowdown was driven by a 24.2% YoY rise in adjusted commercial bank giro balances and a 13.1% YoY increase in currency in circulation. He added that the adjusted figures incorporate the effects of liquidity incentives and monetary measures.

Throughout the year, adjusted base money has remained relatively steady compared with December 2024’s Rp2,027.33 trillion, increasing only 5.37% by November 2025. Base money consists of currency held by the public and commercial bank reserves at BI, while the adjusted version excludes reductions caused by the liquidity incentive program. As of September 2025, base money components included Rp1,200 trillion in currency, Rp923.1 trillion in adjusted bank reserves, Rp3.86 trillion in private-sector reserves, and Rp25.3 trillion in BI securities such as SRBI, SUVBI, and SVBI.

On the lending side, BI recorded credit growth of 7.36% YoY in October 2025, down from 7.7% the previous month, with undisbursed loans amounting to Rp2,450.7 trillion. Governor Perry Warjiyo said that credit demand remains weak because businesses are holding off expansion. He noted that lending rates have fallen more slowly than BI’s 125-basis-point rate cut, partly due to special rates granted to large depositors, which represent 27% of total deposits. BI maintains that credit growth will likely land at the lower bound of its 8–11% target range in 2025 and accelerate in 2026.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Purbaya remains confident the economy can grow 5.2% this year, supported by year-end stimulus measures such as the Temporary Cash Assistance (BLTS). The program provides Rp900,000 to 35 million households from October to December 2025, alongside discounted transportation fares for the Christmas and New Year holidays. He forecasts fourth-quarter growth at 5.7%. Purbaya also highlighted the stock market rally—IHSG reaching a historic high of 8,600—as a sign of improving investor confidence.

On the political front, he revealed that consumer confidence has rebounded significantly according to LPS surveys, after weakening midyear. The liquidity injections of Rp200 trillion plus an additional Rp70 trillion were credited with reversing sentiment, raising the index to 118 in November. With stronger public confidence, he expects fewer protests and smoother policy execution. Purbaya ended by projecting that Indonesia could achieve 6% economic growth next year if the current momentum is maintained.