Private gas station (SPBU) operators are projected to suffer losses exceeding Rp1 trillion due to their inability to sell gasoline since late August 2025.

According to Badiul Hadi, Research Manager at the Indonesian Forum for Budget Transparency (FITRA), these losses stem from the loss of daily fuel sales revenue and the ongoing operational costs that companies must bear despite having no daily income.

He explained that, based on data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) for 2024, there are 2,314 private SPBUs out of a total of 15,917 stations across Indonesia.

Calculations show that the absence of gasoline supply from late August to October 20, 2025, could result in lost revenue of approximately Rp690 billion for private downstream oil companies.

“If we include fixed costs that continue even without income, the total actual losses could be much higher, potentially exceeding Rp1 trillion,” Badiul stated on Wednesday (October 22, 2025).

Loss Scenarios

Badiul outlined a conservative scenario: assuming daily sales of 7,500 liters and a profit margin of Rp500 per liter, each private SPBU could lose around Rp187 million during the period between late August and October 20, 2025.

On a national scale, total minimum losses are estimated at around Rp430 billion.

In a moderate scenario, the losses could be greater. Assuming sales of 10,000 liters per day and a margin of Rp600 per liter, potential lost revenue could reach Rp300 million per station, or about Rp690 billion nationwide.

“These figures only account for the lost sales margins,” he emphasized.

Meanwhile, ESDM data shows that the market share of non-subsidized fuel outside of Pertamina rose from 11% in 2024 to 15% during the first seven months of 2025.

According to Badiul, this four-percentage-point increase represents an additional demand of about 1.18 billion liters per year, or 162 million liters within just two months.

“These numbers highlight the significant economic potential lost due to supply disruptions. It’s ironic, given that this happens amid a positive trend of growing private sector participation in the non-subsidized fuel market. If this situation continues, not only will businesses suffer, but consumers will also lose access to competitive prices and services,” he said.

Expansion Delays

Private fuel station operators have responded to the gasoline shortage with various strategic measures.

BP-AKR, for example, has adopted a wait-and-see approach toward its expansion plans in Indonesia, after facing supply shortages for several types of fuel since late August.

Vanda Laura, President Director of BP-AKR, explained that the company had initially targeted the opening of more than 10 new stations this year. Some of these outlets have already been constructed but have yet to be inaugurated.

She noted that inaugurating them now would be unwise, as BP-AKR can currently only sell diesel, while RON 92 and RON 95 gasoline remain unavailable.

“At the moment, we’re still observing market conditions. It wouldn’t make sense to open stations when we don’t have the products to sell. That’s our main concern, and we’ve already communicated this,” Vanda said after attending a meeting with other operators and government officials at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources on Wednesday (September 10, 2025).

Shell Indonesia Operational Adjustments

Meanwhile, Shell Indonesia confirmed that it has adjusted operations across its network while certain gasoline products remain unavailable.

Ingrid Siburian, President Director & Managing Director of Mobility Shell Indonesia, stated that the company also adjusted operating hours and staffing schedules.

“Regarding social media claims suggesting that some Shell station employees were laid off due to the lack of gasoline products, we clarify that we’ve only made temporary operational adjustments during the product shortage,” Ingrid said in a written statement on Tuesday (September 16, 2025).

She also denied that the company had closed any stations due to the shortage. Videos on social media showing Shell stations closed at night, she explained, were due to reduced operating hours.

“Shell stations continue to serve customers with available fuel products and other services, including Shell Select, Shell Recharge, workshops, and lubricants,” she added.

Efforts to Resolve the Supply Issue

The resolution of the private SPBU gasoline shortage was initially expected by the end of October 2025, through a base fuel sales agreement between PT Pertamina Patra Niaga (PPN) and private downstream oil companies.

Simon Aloysius Mantiri, Pertamina’s President Director, said that the agreement was targeted for completion on Friday (October 17, 2025). However, the deadline has not yet been met.

Roberth Dumatubun, Pertamina Patra Niaga’s Acting Corporate Secretary, revealed that discussions are still ongoing and currently focus on technical specifications and commercial frameworks for the base fuel.

As a result, no final decision has been reached from the follow-up meeting between Pertamina Patra Niaga and private SPBU operators.
“Once they agree, we can proceed to the next phase,” Roberth said over the weekend.

In the latest development, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia claimed that several private SPBU operators have agreed to purchase base fuel from Pertamina.

Bahlil emphasized that the negotiations are conducted on a business-to-business (B2B) basis between Pertamina and private downstream companies.

“They’re working together. I’ve received reports that some have already signed agreements,” Bahlil told reporters at the Presidential Palace complex on Monday (October 20, 2025) evening.

However, when asked which specific operators had signed the deal, Bahlil admitted he was not aware of the details.
“I don’t know the technical aspects because it’s a B2B matter,” he said.