Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that the opportunity to pursue tax revenues from the underground economy remains wide open, provided that the data and the estimated potential figures can be clearly identified.

“If the numbers are clear and I can calculate them accurately, we will definitely go after it,” said Purbaya firmly.

Unfortunately, the actual size of the underground economy cannot be accurately measured at this time. For that reason, he prefers to focus on improving the real economy, rather than dealing with underground or unrecorded economic activities that are not officially monitored by the government.

“Instead of discussing something uncertain, I’d rather fix what’s visible first — the part that’s above ground, not underground. I’ll address the weaknesses that can still be improved. Once those are settled, then we can move on to other things,” Purbaya explained at the Ministry of Finance, quoted on Tuesday (October 28, 2025).

Regarding its potential, Purbaya admitted that he finds it difficult to quantify, as it is inherently hidden. He added that if someone claims to have calculated it, that figure would only be a “guessing game” or an unreliable estimate.

“How can you measure it? It’s underground by nature. People would just be guessing. If it can be measured precisely, then it’s no longer underground,” he remarked.

“If we were to chase it seriously, we’d essentially be pursuing something that may not even exist or cannot be measured accurately. I don’t even know how to set a clear target or determine how much to take — it’s all very uncertain,” he added.

He further emphasized that pursuing the underground economy would likely yield zero results, making it far more worthwhile to focus on improving visible and measurable sectors.
“In essence, the result would be zero. So rather than talking about that, I’ll just fix what’s right in front of me — the part that’s visible and can be improved. Once that’s done, then we can think about the rest,” he reiterated.

The administration of President Prabowo Subianto, however, has expressed a strong ambition to capture potential state revenues from the underground economy.

Previously, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, the President’s brother and Special Envoy for Energy and Climate Change, revealed that the potential state revenue from the underground economy could reach Rp300 trillion to Rp600 trillion annually.

According to Hashim, the President had once instructed a former Deputy Minister of Finance to secure Rp300–Rp600 trillion per year for the state treasury. He mentioned that the government planned to establish a digital monitoring system capable of tracking illegal and semi-illegal activities.

“By using internet-based monitoring, we’ll be able to track legal, semi-illegal, and illegal activities. From there, we can generate hundreds of trillions of rupiah annually — around Rp300 to Rp600 trillion,” Hashim emphasized during the Economic Dialogue with Kadin last year.

In fact, underground economic activities in Indonesia have already been studied by researchers from the University of Indonesia (UI). Their findings revealed that the value of the underground economy is remarkably high, estimated at around Rp1.968 trillion.

This figure was derived from the research conducted by Kharisma & Khoirunurrofik (2019), which estimated the maximum range of underground economic activity in Indonesia. The study, covering the period 2007–2017, found that the underground economy accounted for 3.8% to 11.6% of the Regional Gross Domestic Product (GRDP), averaging 8% per province per year.

The Rp1.968 trillion value represents 11.6% of Indonesia’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021, a figure that closely aligns with the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) estimate of 8.3–10% of national GDP.