PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (MDIY) has seen its share price plunge by 40% throughout 2025, with the stock trading at Rp1.070 per share as of midday on November 24, 2025. This decline occurred despite the company recording increases in both new store openings and net revenue.

MDIY’s stock previously reached its all-time high (ATH) of Rp1.790 per share in December 2024, shortly after its initial listing. However, the share price has since fallen sharply, hitting its lowest level of Rp1.020 per share in September 2025. The downturn reflects weakening market confidence in the company’s performance and financial condition.

A closer look into Daya Intiguna Yasa’s financial performance shows the following:

• Total assets: Rp6.97 trillion as of September 30, 2025, rising 10.11% from the previous year (December 2024).
• Sales revenue: Rp5.77 trillion in Q3 2025, an increase of 17.26% year-on-year.
• Net profit: Rp792.38 billion throughout 2025, growing only slightly by 0.68% from last year.
• Number of stores: 70 new stores opened during Q3 2025, bringing the total to 1,154 stores across Indonesia.

Challenges and Risks

Several factors may be contributing to the drop in MDIY’s share price:

• High expenses: operational expenses reached Rp2.011 trillion as of September 30, 2025, up 27.8% from the previous year.
• Low profitability: while revenue experienced double-digit growth, net profit grew only marginally.
• Technical pressure: indicators point to a bearish trend (lower lows and lower highs), with the price sitting below the 50-day MA and 100-day SMA, stochastic in oversold territory, and trading volume relatively low.

Market Consensus

Bloomberg’s market consensus indicates that out of four analysts, three (75%) have assigned a buy recommendation for MDIY shares, while one analyst (25%) has given a hold recommendation.

The 12-month target price for MDIY sits at Rp1,483 per share, implying an upside potential of around 39% from the current price.

Market estimates also suggest that MDIY’s full-year 2025 net profit will reach Rp1.13 trillion, representing a potential 5% growth compared to 2024.

Meanwhile, net revenue for 2025 is forecast to reach Rp9.78 trillion. If achieved, this would indicate a 44% surge compared to the previous year.

The decline in MDIY’s stock price reflects market concerns over high operating costs and unmet expectations, evidenced by the modest increase in net profit relative to substantial revenue growth.

Investors should also take into account the company’s dividend distribution, as MDIY did not issue an annual dividend in the 2024 financial year. The entire net profit of Rp1.07 trillion was allocated to mandatory reserves and retained earnings.

Citing research from Sinarmas Sekuritas, key risks remain in focus. The first is execution risk tied to the company’s rapid expansion of retail outlets, which may impact its growth profile. Additionally, slower consumer spending or broader macroeconomic pressures could weigh on average transaction values and transaction growth.