DIGIVESTASI - Crypto Market Declines: Five Key Factors Behind the Drop, The cryptocurrency market is facing another downturn, reflecting high volatility influenced by various factors, ranging from historical trends to macroeconomic policies. One of the main drivers behind this decline is Bitcoin profit-taking.

As of early Tuesday (January 28, 2025), Bitcoin was trading around $99,800 after hitting a low of $97,732 on Monday evening (January 27, 2025), dropping below the crucial psychological level of $100,000. Over the past week, Bitcoin has lost more than 5%, followed by declines in other major cryptocurrencies. Overall, the total crypto market capitalization has plunged over 5.38% in the last 24 hours, settling around $3.41 trillion.

Previously, Arthur Hayes warned that selling pressure was inevitable, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to $75,000–70,000 per BTC. However, he remains optimistic that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high of $250,000 by the end of 2025.

1. Bitcoin Profit-Taking After the Halving Event

Bitcoin’s recent price correction is linked to historical profit-taking patterns following Bitcoin Halving events. Analyst Kevin Svenson’s Bitcoin Halving Cycle Profit indicator suggests a consistent timing pattern after each halving, signaling explicit strategies for profit-taking and Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA).

The most recent Bitcoin Halving occurred on April 19, 2024. Based on Svenson’s indicator, optimal profit-taking typically begins 40 weeks after the halving, which falls on January 24, 2025. This period often sees increased selling pressure as Bitcoin’s price reaches a peak within its post-halving cycle.

Additionally, the “last call” for profit-taking happens 80 weeks after the halving, around October 11, 2025. This marks the final window for investors to maximize gains before the market potentially enters a bearish phase. Historical data indicates that after this period, the crypto market tends to experience a significant downturn as investors begin mass sell-offs.

2. The Federal Reserve’s Tight Monetary Policy

Macroeconomic factors are also weighing heavily on the crypto market. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates only twice in 2025, significantly fewer than in 2024. This restrictive policy limits liquidity flow into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

With interest rates remaining high, speculative assets like Bitcoin and altcoins become less attractive, increasing downward pressure on the crypto market. This trend coincides with the post-halving phase, where market weakness is typically observed.

3. Uncertainty in U.S. Crypto Regulations

Regulatory uncertainty from the U.S. government is another factor contributing to the market downturn. There has been ongoing discussion about designating Bitcoin as a strategic national reserve asset, but it has yet to become a policy priority.

Instead, the U.S. government is focused on refining the legal definitions and classifications of crypto assets within the financial system. This regulatory uncertainty adds pressure to the market, as investors remain cautious while awaiting clearer policies. Historically, crypto markets have often experienced declines during periods of regulatory ambiguity.

Temukan berita dan artikel lainnya di Google News