CryptoQuant: On-Chain Bitcoin Indicator Signals Bearish Phase

The on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant has issued a warning that Bitcoin's Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric is signaling a potential price decline. This suggests that Bitcoin is entering a bearish phase, as investors begin reducing their risk exposure at current price levels.

According to CryptoQuant contributor J.A. Maartunn, the flow of Bitcoin between derivative and spot exchanges has become a key alarm for those expecting a bullish BTC trend.

When Bitcoin inflows into derivative exchanges increase, it typically signals a bullish period, as traders move assets to open long positions in the derivatives market.

Conversely, when Bitcoin exits derivative exchanges and moves into spot exchanges, it signals the start of a bearish phase, usually occurring when whales close their buy positions and reduce their overall risk exposure.

The latest charts indicate that the IFP trend is turning downward, aligning with a drop in BTC prices.

"The indicator has turned bearish, reflecting a decline in market risk appetite and potentially marking the beginning of a bearish phase," Maartunn stated.

Bitcoin IFP Historical Trends

The IFP metric reached its all-time high in March 2021, one month before BTC/USD peaked at US$58,000 (approximately Rp940.1 million), a level that lasted for around seven months.

In January 2025, when Bitcoin set a new record at US$109,000 (approximately Rp1.7 billion), the IFP remained significantly lower than its peak four years earlier.

Historical data suggests that each Bitcoin price cycle peak is accompanied by a new IFP peak.

While few analysts believe Bitcoin’s rally will end soon, a potential price surge could still occur if global liquidity increases. However, much will depend on U.S. macroeconomic policies, which continue to play a crucial role in shaping the crypto market.

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