Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa estimates that the prices of Indonesia’s key export commodities are likely to rise following the outbreak of conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. This situation could generate windfall profits that may boost state revenues.

The potential increase in export commodity prices such as coal, crude palm oil (CPO), and nickel could serve as a balancing factor against the risk of surging global crude oil prices, which may increase the burden of energy subsidy spending in the 2026 state budget. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted one of the world’s most crucial oil and gas trade routes, namely the Strait of Hormuz.

“Although there is a potential increase in energy subsidies and debt interest obligations, alongside the opportunity for windfall profits from commodities such as coal, CPO, and nickel, the government continues to closely monitor developments. It is also ensuring that the state budget instruments function responsively while maintaining prudent fiscal management so that policy responses remain measured in order to preserve economic stability and people’s purchasing power,” Purbaya stated during a press conference on the state budget at his office, as quoted on Thursday (March 12, 2026).

Purbaya noted that coal prices have risen by about 28% so far this year, reaching US$107.5 per ton as of March 10, 2026. This figure also exceeds the price recorded during the same period last year by around 4.1% on a year-on-year basis.

He explained that the rise in coal prices has also been driven by a substitution effect, as countries in Europe and Asia have begun seeking alternative energy sources following disruptions to oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Meanwhile, crude palm oil prices have increased by approximately 14% year-to-date, reaching US$1,110.47 per ton. However, compared to the same period last year, the price still shows a contraction of 2.8%.

Nickel prices have climbed by about 4.9% year-to-date to US$17,469 per ton, marking a 12.7% increase year-on-year. Copper has also risen by 4.3% year-to-date to US$12,954 per ton, with a strong annual increase of 40.3%. Gold prices have likewise surged by 19.5% year-to-date to US$5,164.39 per troy ounce, representing a 75.1% rise compared with the same period last year.

According to Purbaya, gold prices remain on an upward trend, reflecting a shift in market sentiment toward assets considered safe havens. At the same time, mineral commodities such as nickel and copper are also experiencing price increases, continuing to provide strong support for government revenue performance.

Meanwhile, benchmark global crude oil prices such as Brent have risen by about 47.1% year-to-date to US$89.9 per barrel. However, this level remains lower than during the same period last year, reflecting a decline of about 8.2%.

Purbaya also mentioned that Brent crude prices had briefly surpassed the US$100 per barrel level. Nevertheless, prices have since corrected downward following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who predicted that the war could end soon.