Indonesia's financial markets showed mixed movements on Monday (July 14, 2025). The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closed in the green zone, while the rupiah exchange rate and bond market weakened.

Today, markets are expected to be quite volatile, influenced by the new tariff policy announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. More details on this market sentiment are available on page 3 of the article.

On the previous trading day, the JCI rose by 0.71% to close at 7,097.15, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains.

Trading volume was active, with total transactions reaching IDR 19.07 trillion, involving 24.29 billion shares across 1.78 million transactions. A total of 188 stocks rose, 418 declined, and 198 remained unchanged.

Foreign investors posted a net sell of IDR 1.13 trillion.

The JCI's rally was mainly driven by stocks within the conglomerate group owned by Prajogo Pangestu.

Shares of PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) hit the upper auto reject limit (ARA) and became the main contributor to the index with a 45.54-point contribution.

Shares of PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) and PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN) contributed 18.66 and 10.19 points, respectively.

Other contributors included PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) with 5.29 points and PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk (TPIA) with 5.06 points. Its newly listed subsidiary PT Chandra Daya Investasi Tbk (CDIA) added 3.04 points.

Meanwhile, the rupiah weakened against the U.S. dollar.

According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah stood at IDR 16,240 per U.S. dollar, down 0.22%, ending a two-day strengthening trend.

This depreciation was partly triggered by the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which hit its highest level in nearly three weeks.

The DXY strengthened as tariff tensions escalated after President Trump announced a 30% tariff on the European Union and Mexico on Saturday (July 12). A day earlier, Trump also imposed a 35% tariff on Canada, effective August 1, 2025.

Trump also raised the minimum tariff from 10% to 15-20% for several other countries. This policy signals continued protectionism, prompting investors to shift to safe-haven assets.

In the bond market, there was a slight sell-off.

The yield on 10-year Indonesian government bonds rose to 6.58%, up by less than 1 basis point. Note that bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street, U.S. markets closed slightly higher despite Trump’s new tariff threats.

Investors remain optimistic that the tariffs could still be negotiated and are awaiting the Q2 earnings season.

The S&P 500 rose 0.14% to 6,268.56, the Nasdaq gained 0.27% to 20,640.33, and the Dow Jones increased 0.20% or 88.14 points to 44,459.65.

Investors are closely monitoring Trump’s plan to implement a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico starting August 1.

EU and Mexican leaders have expressed a willingness to continue dialogue with the U.S. to find a more favorable tariff solution.

Trump’s move comes ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data, a key benchmark for investors assessing the impact of the tariff policy.

Attention is also focused on the earnings reports of major companies such as JPMorgan Chase.

"The key question for markets over the next few weeks is whether solid corporate earnings can offset the negative sentiment from the tariff issue," said Glen Smith of GDS Wealth Management to CNBC.

Investors are also observing tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve.

On Sunday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated that Trump could fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if a strong justification arises.

Trump criticized the Fed’s renovation project, deeming it too expensive with a cost of US$2.5 billion.

Powell has requested the Inspector General to audit the project's budget. The Fed stated the renovation involves a historic building nearly 100 years old.

It’s worth noting that the Fed is independent from the federal government and does not receive funding from the national budget.

In regional news, China is set to release its Q2 2025 GDP data today, which is expected to grow by 5.1% YoY, slowing from 5.4% in the previous quarter.

China also reported a trade surplus of US$114.77 billion in June, higher than last year and above market expectations.

Exports grew 5.8% YoY, while imports rose 1.1% YoY after a prior decline.

China’s trade surplus with the U.S. rose to US$26.57 billion. However, exports and imports between the two countries fell by 16.1% and 15.5%, respectively.

Cumulatively, China’s trade surplus reached US$586 billion in H1 2025.

Domestically, BPS will announce H1 2025 poverty and income inequality data.

Bank Indonesia is holding its Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) to determine interest rate policy.

In the previous RDG, BI maintained the BI-Rate at 5.50%, considering exchange rate stability, inflation, and economic growth.

U.S. June inflation data will be released on Tuesday. CPI is expected to rise 0.3%, the highest in five months. Core annual inflation is forecast to increase to 2.9%.

Economists anticipate inflation will rise gradually, but remain limited as consumers continue to hold back spending.

June retail sales are expected to increase slightly after two months of declines. This data will guide Q2 economic growth projections.

Fed officials have delayed rate cuts amid concerns that high tariffs may further fuel inflation. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for July 29-30.

Key Events Today:

• China Q2 2025 GDP Release

• China Retail Sales & Unemployment Data

• U.S. June 2025 Inflation Data

• Presidential Communication Briefing

• Red-White Cooperative Coordination Meeting

• Technical Working Meeting by Directorate General of Marine and Fisheries

• BPS Poverty Data Release

• Parliamentary and Budget Committee Sessions

• Parliamentary Commission VI Meeting with Perumnas & PTPP

• Former Education Minister Interrogation at Attorney General’s Office

• TikTok Sympathetic Event by Telkomsel

• Corporate Agenda: CUAN ex-date, WIFI rights issue, CNTX/INRU/MASA tender offers, and AGMs of several issuers

Latest Indonesian Economic Indicators:

• Q1 2025 Economic Growth: 4.87% YoY

• June 2025 Inflation: 1.87% YoY

• BI-Rate: 5.50%

• June 2025 State Budget Deficit: 0.81% of GDP

• Q1 2025 Current Account Deficit: 0.1% of GDP

• Q1 2025 Balance of Payments Deficit: US$800 million

• June 2025 Foreign Exchange Reserves: US$152.6 billion