Coal prices continue to surge, reaching their highest level in the past three months. Based on Refinitiv data, the coal price as of Tuesday's trading (June 17, 2025) closed at US$111.5 per ton, rising by 1.83%. This increase extends the five-day rally of the "black sand," with a cumulative gain of 5.4%.

Yesterday's price gain brought coal to its highest level since March 11, 2025, when it reached US$112 per ton—the highest point in over three months.

The surge in coal prices has been driven by several global developments, including energy policies in the United States, Germany, and China, as well as heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.

Germany is expected to expand its coal-fired power generation capacity. Due to low wind speeds during the first quarter of 2025, renewable electricity generation in Germany fell by 17%—marking the first decline in two years. In contrast, electricity generation from fossil fuels significantly increased.

Despite the overall decline in renewables, wind power remained the dominant energy source, accounting for nearly 28% of electricity generation, just slightly above coal, which held a 27% share.

Gas-fired electricity contributed nearly 21%, while solar power grew “by more than a third,” pushing its share up to 9.2% of the total energy mix, according to reports.

Meanwhile, China has increased its approval for new coal-fired power plants following a drop in 2024. According to Reuters, China approved 11 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing the 10 GW approved in the first half of last year.

In 2024, approvals for new coal power plant capacity in China declined by 41.5% year-on-year to 62.24 GW—marking the first annual drop since 2021. However, the latest data show a rising trend. Although not all approved projects will be realized, the growing list of approved plants signals a continued reliance on coal.

China has stated its intention to reduce coal usage during the upcoming 2026–2030 Five-Year Plan, but Beijing has yet to set specific targets.

This year marks the final year of the 2021–2025 Five-Year Plan, during which China approved 289 GW of new coal power capacity—almost double the 145 GW approved in the 2016–2020 period.

United States Pulls Back from Clean Energy

The administration of President Donald Trump and legislators in Wyoming appear to be losing momentum in their push to support commercial-scale carbon capture research and deployment at coal power plants—a key part of Governor Mark Gordon’s inclusive “decarbonization” energy strategy.

In May, the U.S. Department of Energy canceled approximately US$3.7 billion in federal grants intended to support “clean energy” demonstration projects nationwide, including US$49 million for a large-scale carbon capture pilot project at the Dry Fork Station coal plant located north of Gillette, Wyoming.

Also in May, Wyoming’s Joint Minerals, Business, and Economic Development Legislative Committee moved to consider repealing the state’s carbon capture mandate for coal plants under House Bill 200, titled “Reliable and Dispatchable Low Carbon Energy Standards,” which was passed in 2020.

However, according to Wyoming lawmakers, the law does not appear to be leading to actual carbon capture retrofits in the near term, even though electricity consumers in the state have already spent millions of dollars to fund the technical feasibility studies required by the mandate.