The Strait of Hormuz is now under the threat of closure following a U.S. airstrike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, local time.

Iranian media reported that the country’s parliament supports the idea of shutting down the Strait, one of the world’s most critical routes for crude oil shipments, according to a senior lawmaker. However, the final decision rests with Iran’s National Security Council.

In response to this growing tension, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China for assistance, given that China is Iran’s top oil customer and maintains friendly diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic.

“I urge the Chinese government in Beijing to reach out to them about this, as they are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil supply,” Rubio said in a Fox News interview, as reported by CNBC International on Monday, June 23, 2025.

Any attempt to obstruct the Strait of Hormuz—which lies between Iran and Oman—could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy. According to 2024 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait daily, accounting for 20% of global oil consumption.

Following the U.S. attack on Iran, oil prices surged over 2%, fueling fears about potential supply disruptions.

Both Goldman Sachs and consulting firm Rapidan Energy estimate that oil prices could soar above US$100 per barrel if the Strait were to be shut for an extended period. However, analysts at JPMorgan believe the risk of Iran closing the waterway is relatively low, as the U.S. would likely interpret such action as a declaration of war.

“Closing the Strait would be economic suicide for Iran, as it would halt their own oil exports,” Rubio added.

“It would also be far more damaging to other countries’ economies than to ours,” he continued.

“I believe this would represent a massive escalation, requiring a response not just from the United States, but from other nations as well.”

Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, with an output of 3.3 million barrels per day. Last month, the country exported 1.84 million barrels per day.

According to Kpler, most of Iran’s oil is sold to China, and about half of China’s seaborne crude oil imports originate from the Persian Gulf.

“That would be a self-inflicted wound: closing the Strait would cut off Iran’s crude oil exports to China, eliminating a vital revenue stream,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler.

Could Last for Months

Meanwhile, most oil market participants still expect the U.S. Navy to quickly suppress any Iranian attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz. However, some experts caution that markets may be underestimating the threat.

“In our view, Iran could disrupt shipments through Hormuz for a longer period than markets currently anticipate,” said Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy and former energy adviser to President George W. Bush, as cited by the same source.

“Shipments could be impacted for weeks or even months,” he explained.

“The U.S. will eventually prevail, but it won’t be easy,” McNally concluded.