DIGIVESTASI - DBS Bank projects that Indonesia's capital market conditions are unlikely to show significant improvement in the first half of 2025. This prediction is based on foreign investor responses to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies during his second term in office.

Joanne Goh, Senior Investment Strategist at DBS Bank, explained that Trump's new trade policies are expected to increase import tariffs on U.S. trade partners. "For Indonesia, we anticipate challenges, particularly in the first half of the year, due to the effects of 'Trump 2.0' policies," Goh stated during the DBS Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Insights event on Monday (1/13/2025).

Goh noted that the impact of these tariff policies initiated by Trump has been evident since late 2024 and early 2025. One indicator is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major global currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah, as well as rising U.S. Treasury yields. "These conditions make assets such as Indonesian government securities less attractive to global investors," she added.

However, DBS predicts a gradual recovery starting in the second half of 2025, largely supported by economic diversification efforts to mitigate the impact of Trump’s trade policies. Specifically for Indonesia, Goh highlighted the positive potential of the country as one of ASEAN's largest economies. With its large population, domestic consumption remains a key driver for supporting national economic growth. "We are optimistic that the domestic sector, particularly stocks in consumer goods and banking, will perform well," she said.

Meanwhile, President Trump's economic team is reportedly crafting a gradual tariff increase policy. This measure is designed to strengthen the U.S.'s negotiating position in the global market without triggering a spike in inflation. Trump previously proposed imposing a 10% or higher tariff on all imported goods into the U.S., aiming to significantly reduce the trade deficit.

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