IHSG Emerges as Asia-Pacific’s Top Performing Index Last Week

The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) posted an outstanding performance last week, slipping into negative territory only once during the five trading days.

Despite continued strong foreign fund outflows, the IHSG gained 3.74% to reach 6,678.92, outperforming the previous week's growth of 2.81%.

This solid performance made IHSG the best-performing stock index in the Asia-Pacific region. Its closest rivals were Japan’s Nikkei 225, which rose 2.81%, and Singapore’s Straits Times, which gained 2.78%.

However, it's important to note that IHSG is now testing a resistance area prone to profit-taking, while the Indonesian rupiah still faces pressure from the repatriation of dividends by major banks.

Technically, IHSG is currently challenging the horizontal resistance line drawn from the March 14, 2025 high at around the 6,600 level.

Looking ahead, financial markets are expected to see dynamic movement next week, with investors focusing on domestic inflation trends, U.S. labor market data, and signs of global economic recovery.

Domestically, BPS (Central Statistics Agency) will release April inflation data on May 2, an important release given recent food price pressures due to seasonal and distribution factors.

Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia will publish its Q1-2025 Banking Survey on April 28, offering insights into future credit growth and liquidity conditions.

The highlight will be the release of Indonesia’s Q1-2025 GDP data on May 5, crucial for gauging market sentiment, especially amid concerns over consumer spending under high-interest rates.

Additionally, the Indonesian market may experience lower volatility early in the week due to public holidays on Labor Day (May 1) and Hari Penampahan Kuningan (May 2).

Conversely, the U.S. market will remain active, with peak volatility expected during the release of key GDP, PCE, and employment reports.

In the U.S., next week is packed with heavyweight data that could impact global markets.

The PCE Price Index for March—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—is due on April 30 evening, with forecasts projecting an annual rise to 2.5% from 2.2%, reinforcing expectations of prolonged high interest rates.

Other key releases include JOLTs Job Openings and Consumer Confidence (April 29), and Initial Jobless Claims along with ISM Manufacturing PMI (May 1).

At the same time, the first estimate of Q1-2025 U.S. GDP is expected to show modest quarterly growth of 0.5%, suggesting that monetary tightening is beginning to impact.

From China, markets will monitor the release of NBS Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April on April 30 morning.

The official PMI is projected to hover at a modest expansion of 50.5, while the Caixin PMI is forecasted at 51.2. These indicators will reflect the health of China’s manufacturing sector following months of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

If PMI figures strengthen, Asian market sentiment could improve; otherwise, weaker data may revive concerns about global growth prospects.