IHSG Surges 1.52%, Banking Stocks Drive Gains

The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) surged 1.52% to 6,639.31 during the first trading session on Monday (February 17, 2025). This rebound continues the uptrend from last weekend after facing previous market pressure.

As of 10:06 AM WIB, the total transaction value reached Rp3.17 trillion, with 4.51 billion shares traded across 414,000 transactions. A total of 319 stocks moved into the green zone, while 194 stocks declined, and 237 stocks remained unchanged.

Sectorally, nearly all sectors were in positive territory except for non-primary consumer goods and healthcare. The property, energy, and basic materials sectors recorded the highest gains.

The IHSG’s rally was supported by blue-chip stocks, particularly in the banking sector. Bank Mandiri (BMRI) emerged as the primary driver, followed by Barito Renewables Energy (BREN), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), and Telkom Indonesia (TLKM).

Key Market Drivers This Week

This week, Indonesia's financial market will be influenced by domestic factors, including trade balance data, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) interest rate decision, and bank credit growth. Meanwhile, on the external front, investors will be watching the latest Federal Reserve (The Fed) meeting minutes, which could signal a more hawkish monetary policy.

Market Sentiments to Watch:

1. Indonesia’s Trade Balance

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is set to release Indonesia’s January 2025 trade balance on Monday (February 17, 2025). The trade surplus is expected to narrow due to weaker commodity prices. A market consensus compiled by CNBC Indonesia estimates a US$1.78 billion trade surplus for January 2025, down from US$2.24 billion in December 2024.

2. Bank Indonesia’s Interest Rate Decision (BI Rate)

Bank Indonesia will announce its BI Rate policy on Wednesday (February 19, 2025). Previously, BI cut the benchmark rate to 5.75% during the Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) on January 14-15, 2025, a 25 basis points reduction from the previous level. The Deposit Facility Rate is currently set at 5%, while the Lending Facility Rate stands at 6.5%.

3. Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (NPI)

On Thursday (February 20, 2025), Bank Indonesia will release Q4 2024 Balance of Payments (NPI) and full-year 2024 data. In Q3 2024, Indonesia recorded a US$5.9 billion surplus, while the current account balance posted a US$2.2 billion deficit (0.6% of GDP). BI expects the current account deficit for 2024 to remain healthy, ranging between 0.1-0.9% of GDP, slightly higher than 0.1% in 2023.

4. The Fed’s FOMC Minutes

Global markets will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, scheduled for release on Thursday, February 20, 2025. The December dot plot projected only two rate cuts for the year. However, with January inflation surpassing expectations, The Fed may adopt a more hawkish stance.

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that The Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates. According to CME FedWatch Tool (as of February 16, 2025), the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 42.6%.

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