Indonesia is expected to be affected if Iran proceeds with closing the Strait of Hormuz in its ongoing war against Israel. The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman serves as a critical trade route for approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day, or 20% of global consumption. It is also a key corridor for liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments.

Data from state-owned PT Pertamina (Persero) reveals that Indonesia’s crude oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz amount to 22.8 million barrels.

Fadjar Djoko Santoso, Pertamina's VP of Corporate Communication, stated that crude oil purchases from Saudi Arabia make up around 19% of total national imports. Meanwhile, the total crude oil imports for Indonesia in 2024 are estimated at about 120 million barrels.

“It’s possible that we import 22.8 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz,” Fadjar confirmed to CNNIndonesia.com on Tuesday (June 24). He added, “Not all of Saudi Arabia’s crude terminals are located along the Strait of Hormuz, though most of them are.”

Shofie Azzahrah, a researcher from Next Policy, emphasized that the most immediate and severe consequence of the blockade threat is the uncertainty in oil supply, which would trigger a spike in global crude oil prices.

When international oil prices surge, the costs of fuel production and imports also increase. However, the government is still expected to maintain the selling price of subsidized fuels like Pertalite and Solar to ensure social and political stability.

“The difference between rising production costs and fixed retail fuel prices will be borne as subsidies through the state budget (APBN). When global oil prices go up, that price gap widens, causing a surge in subsidy expenses,” Shofie explained.

She further warned that the situation could worsen if the rupiah weakens against the US dollar, as oil transactions are conducted in dollars. This would increase the amount of rupiah needed to cover fuel import payments.

Energy analyst from Padjadjaran University, Yayan Satyakti, even projected that global oil prices could skyrocket to as high as US$145 per barrel if the blockade persists for months.

Meanwhile, Nailul Huda, Economic Director at the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), warned that Indonesia’s state budget could come under significant pressure due to rising subsidy burdens amid the turmoil in the global oil supply chain.

“When global oil prices rise, global inflation typically follows. This high inflation could lead to a global recession, reducing international trade activity, including for Indonesia,” he said.

Huda added, “As inflation increases, central banks tend to raise interest rates to contain it. This leads to higher investment costs and slows down global economic activity.”

Iran appears serious about blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media reported that the country’s parliament supports the closure plan. However, the final decision lies with Iran’s National Security Council.

Tensions escalated after the United States carried out airstrikes on three of Iran’s major nuclear facilities—Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan—on Saturday (June 21) in an operation dubbed “Midnight Hammer.” President Donald Trump launched the attack to pressure Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his forces back to the negotiation table.

This uncertainty is compounded by the ongoing US-led trade war. Indonesia is among the countries subject to a reciprocal tariff of 32% imposed by the US. The fate of Indonesia remains uncertain ahead of the July 8, 2025, deadline for the tariff implementation suspension.